TL;DR
- Tariff refunds are live. CBP opened the Phase 1 IEEPA refund process through the ACE Portal. If you paid duties on rescinded orders, that is working capital you are owed, and the route is open now.
- ERP Watch: AI-in-ERP adopters report 10 to 15 percent revenue lifts and Gartner projects 62 percent of ERP deployments will embed AI by 2027.
- AI in Manufacturing: 100 percent bonus depreciation is permanent, 81 percent of CEOs plan to nearshore or reshore, and automation lets them add output without adding headcount.
- Industry Watch: container freight jumped 23 percent week-over-week to $3,433 per 40-foot box, and the June ISM PMI is expected to wobble around 50 after May’s strong 54.3.
- The take: the refunds, the depreciation, and the reshoring math all reward one thing you may not have yet, numbers you can trust on demand. That is the gap, and it is widening.
You want fewer surprises and more control. You want to know what you imported, what you are owed, and what your landed cost actually is the moment you ask, not next week after someone rebuilds a spreadsheet. This week handed mid-market manufacturers three reasons that control just got more valuable, and one reason the gap between the companies that have it and the ones that do not is widening fast.
The tariff refund window opened for real. CBP launched the Phase 1 IEEPA refund process through the ACE Portal, and importers who paid duties on rescinded orders now have a route to get their money back.1 A new CEO survey shows 81 percent plan to nearshore or reshore. Procurement teams are moving to Total Cost of Ownership models instead of purchase-price comparison. And early adopters of AI in ERP are reporting revenue lifts of 10 to 15 percent over the companies that waited.
The freight side still bites. Container rates jumped 23 percent week-over-week to $3,433 per 40-foot box as peak season demand hits. Base ocean rates look low, but surcharges for war risk, bunker fuel, and emergency fees keep all-in costs high.
This is the Third Wave weekly roundup. Here is what moved, what to watch, and what each item means if you run a manufacturer or distributor between $5M and $200M on SAP Business One.
ERP Watch
The AI conversation is sharpening by the week. Businesses using AI in their ERP systems are reporting annual revenue increases of 10 to 15 percent compared to non-adopters. Gartner projects 62 percent of ERP deployments will embed AI by 2027. Task-specific AI agents are expected in 40 percent of enterprise applications by 2026, up from less than 5 percent in 2025.4 We made the same bet ourselves rather than wait for it, which is why we started building AI into ERP directly.
What this means if you run a $5M-$200M manufacturer or distributor on SAP Business One: you do not want to be the company explaining to your board why a competitor your size is pulling 10 to 15 percent more revenue from the same market. That is the real fear, and it is a fair one. Here is the truth that should make it less scary. Those companies are not running magic. They are running clean data, real-time visibility, and automation hooks. The villain is not AI passing you by. The villain is the duplicate business partners, the inconsistent item naming, and the legacy migration artifacts sitting in your B1 instance right now, quietly guaranteeing that anything you automate will automate the mess faster. You should not have to fly blind into the AI shift because your data was never cleaned up. We have walked 500-plus manufacturers through exactly this, and the fix starts with knowing where you actually stand.
AI in Manufacturing
The capex math changed this year, and adoption is following the new numbers.
The One Big Beautiful Bill Act made 100 percent bonus depreciation permanent for equipment acquired after January 19, 2025. A mid-market manufacturer buying a $250,000 machine writes off the entire cost in Year 1, delivering roughly $52,500 in immediate tax savings. Section 179 remains available for the first $2.56M in purchases with a phase-out above $4.09M, and bonus depreciation stacks on top for larger capex.5
The reshoring wave and the automation wave are converging. A new CEO survey shows 81 percent now plan to nearshore or reshore operations. Procurement teams are moving from purchase-price comparison to Total Cost of Ownership models, and TCO math makes domestic production financially viable again when you account for lead times, freight surcharges, and working capital. Nearshoring to Mexico and onshoring to the U.S. are the dominant 2026 strategies as companies prioritize speed, resilience, and operational control over lowest-landed cost.6
Automation is how reshoring works without hundreds of new hires. Robotics costs are falling while labor costs rise, and the margin advantage for early automation adopters is widening. Companies bringing facilities online in 2026 are pairing reshored capacity with cobots and AI-driven systems to add output without adding headcount. The result is a productivity-led expansion where capex on machinery is rising, output is up, but employment stays flat or contracts.
What this means if you run a $5M-$200M manufacturer or distributor on SAP Business One: you want to act on a once-in-a-cycle capex window with confidence, not anxiety. The decision is timing, not whether to automate. But here is what keeps a careful CEO up at night, and rightly so. Pulling forward a $250,000 machine purchase is a bad bet if your ERP cannot give you a clean, fast answer on inventory, supplier reliability, landed cost, and refundable duties the moment you ask. You should not have to gamble six figures on a gut feel because the answer takes a week to assemble. The companies moving with confidence are not braver. They built a backbone that answers in a query. That is the version of your operation we help you become.
Industry Watch
The IEEPA tariff refund process is finally operational, and the timeline matters for working capital planning.
Beginning April 20, 2026, importers and customs brokers gained the ability to file Phase 1 IEEPA duty refund requests directly through the ACE Portal. CBP is accepting CSV uploads for CAPE Declarations. Once validated, the system removes Chapter 99 provisions and issues consolidated refunds by liquidation date. The process is finally moving after months of administrative delays.7 If you are an importer sitting on refundable duties, the real question is whether your ERP can prove what CBP owes you.
Freight costs remain elevated despite benign-looking base rates. The Drewry World Container Index jumped 23 percent week-over-week, reaching $3,433 per 40-foot container. Shippers are seeing an early peak season push on major trade lanes. Base ocean freight rates remain low, but surcharges for war risk, bunker fuel, emergency charges, and peak-season fees keep total shipping costs high. This is a stagflation-like environment where headline rates look benign but all-in costs bite hard.8
The ISM Manufacturing PMI is expected to hover in mild contraction territory for June. Prediction markets place a 44.5 percent probability on the 49.0-49.9 band. The May reading jumped to 54.3, crossing back into expansion, but supply chain bottlenecks persist and analysts remain cautious. A dip back below 50 after a strong May would signal choppy demand ahead. A hold above 50 would confirm the expansion is real.9
What this means if you run a $5M-$200M manufacturer or distributor on SAP Business One: you want the cash that is yours and a true read on what shipping really costs. These are cash-flow events, not headlines. Refundable duties are working capital you are owed, and the refund route is open right now. All-in freight, not the base rate, is the real number you should be planning against. The companies that recover that cash and price against the true number share one trait. Their ERP tells them, fast, what they imported, what they are owed, and what their landed cost actually is after surcharges. The ones still rebuilding that answer by hand are leaving money on the table while the window is open.
The take
Here is the one decision this week forces on a mid-market manufacturing CEO. The IEEPA refunds are flowing, 100 percent bonus depreciation is locked in, 81 percent of CEOs are moving production closer to home, and container surcharges are doubling the all-in cost even while base rates look tame. The math on offshore sourcing breaks down fast, and the capex window is wide open.
None of that helps you if you cannot trust your own numbers. That is the gap. The companies reporting 10 to 15 percent revenue lifts and pulling forward capex with confidence are not braver or luckier than you. They built an ERP backbone that gives them clean data, real-time visibility, and a fast answer before they need it. You do not have to keep flying blind into a quarter that rewards exactly the visibility you do not have yet.
Here is the simple path. First, find out where your B1 data actually stands with a no-cost ERP assessment. Second, get a tailored plan that fixes the data and wires in the AI and automation hooks that matter for your operation. Third, go live with confidence and make your capex, refund, and sourcing calls off numbers you trust. If you are not ready to talk yet, run the assessment and read your own scorecard first.
The stakes are not abstract. Stay on the patchwork stack and you watch competitors your size capture the refunds, the depreciation, and the AI lift while you reconcile spreadsheets. Make the move and you become the manufacturer who answers any question in a query, decides with confidence, and scales without the chaos. The window is open. We will guide you through it. Take it.
References
- IEEPA tariff refunds now live via CBP ACE Portal, Norton Rose Fulbright. Link. CBP IEEPA duty refunds official page. Link.
- AI in ERP revenue lift 10-15%, TechBullion. Link. AI agents in manufacturing, Ampcome. Link.
- 100% bonus depreciation permanent under OBBBA, CPCON Group. Link. IRS One Big Beautiful Bill Act provisions. Link. Section 179 deduction limits for 2026. Link.
- 81% of CEOs plan nearshoring or reshoring, Arches Global. Link. Reshoring matters more in 2026, Corvalent. Link. Nearshoring trends, Global Trade Magazine. Link.
- CBP issues tariff refund instructions, Norton Rose Fulbright. Link.
- Container freight rates surge 23%, Global Trade Magazine. Link. Ocean freight stagflation, Cosmo Freight. Link.
- ISM Manufacturing PMI June 2026 prediction, Lines Prediction Markets. Link.